India 2020 Vs China 2020

Aug 18 2007  | Views 1784 |  Comments  (2)
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Will India grow to threaten biggies like US/UK or will we leave China to grow past us? We all say that China has a lower population of young aged people and hence by 2020, India’s growth will be unprecedented to China’s. How many of you agree? At least I don’t and I’m quite skeptical. China’s literacy rate is 99% as opposed to India which is less than 75%. Now to the distribution of the literacy rate, it's very uneven here. Kerala with a whopping 100% and some states like Bihar with a literacy rate lesser to 40%. When are we going to rise to the level of china in literacy? Next comes their Infrastructure... In order for industries to flourish, the country should have a good Infrastructure, be it roads or rail network or flyovers or office buildings. Shanghai, which is famously compared with Bangalore as a competitor for Software Services, has an excellent Infrastructure. They have the MagLev trains..., They are too good in building roads, bridges etc., See this panoramic photograph from Wikipedia...

Shanghai Panorama
 
And to all of those skeptics, it's not New york city.. It's Shanghai... Compare their Infrastructure with the pot-hole ridden Bangalore roads. We have been blasé so far about the fact that, Chinese don't know English and we'll always rule the world when it comes to American projects. How far is this true...? We've been stating this for more than a decade or so.. and now, a vast majority of Chinese in their engineering know English. It's not so far that they'll start working in Software Industries.

Chinese Government, we all frown that it's a totally useless Communist Government... But look at the way they control their inflation. Were we successful in controlling the inflation in Bangalore? Bangalore's inflation fever has even spread to other cities in India like Chennai, Hyderabad and even Tier-II cities like Coimbatore. Unless the Indian Government brings in strict reforms over the issue of Inflation, no one can help India from losing to China. Now, on to the diversity of exports.., Shanghai exports not only software services, but also a variety of other consumer electronics unlike Bangalore whose sole economy is dependent on Software service export. A diverse export strategy is always required as depending solely on one single source of income is always a risk. Also, do note that, Bangalore exports a lot of software not because of the rich talent over there, but because US feels that, Bangalore has more English speaking cheap labours than any other country in the world. If we let our inflation soar high, we'll one day end up in losing our projects to our competitors like Shanghai and Brazil in line. I'll blog more on this Inflation issue some days later...


Now tell me... How many years will it take for Shanghai to overtake Bangalore..? My surmise is not more than 2 or 3 years... But again, Bill Gates words apply... “We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.” Let see, Even I don't want my words to come true... But I don't know what will happen... Let's wait and see...
 
Mugunth
© MugunthKumar., all rights reserved.

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